DOS Projection on how visa bulletin will move Data and Projections

EB-1:

In absolute terms, EB-1 has used more total visa numbers this fiscal year than any other employment-based category, with usage up to 25% higher than that of EB-2, and EB-3. The increased demand for EB-1 Worldwide numbers is negatively impacting EB-1 China and EB-1 India, which in the past have normally benefitted from the availability of otherwise unused EB-1 numbers from other countries.

We should not expect any movement for EB-1 China and EB-1 India Final Action Dates. Movement for both is only possible if EB-1 Worldwide demand slows down to a sufficient level that would allow otherwise unused numbers to be allocated to these countries. If the current demand trends continue, that is unlikely. For context, Charlie mentioned that EB-1number use during January and February 2019 exceeded that of the entire first quarter of FY2019. From December to January, EB-1 Worldwide number usage increased 15% each month. In February, that number usage was slightly higher than December, but declined slightly overall. It was still excessive, however, given that February is a short month. March is at least on par with the number usage that materialized in February 2019, indicating that the demand does not show signs of significantly decreasing. We should expect movement of anywhere from no movement to up to one month for EB-1 Worldwide Final Action Dates.

EB-2 Worldwide:

If the current demand trend continues, EB-2 Worldwide should remain current throughout the FY2019.

EB-2 and EB-3 India Remain Flipped:

In the April 2019 Visa Bulletin, the EB-2 India Final Action Date once again advances only three days to April 12, 2009. EB-3 India remains ahead of EB-2 India, advancing a full month for a Final Action Date of June 22, 2009. While the same movement patterns are expected for the foreseeable future, members should continue to watch these two categories carefully.

Since EB-2 Worldwide demand is on target to use, but not exceed its numbers this fiscal year, few, if any numbers can be expected to be left unused. Thus, there will likely not be any additional numbers available for EB-2 India use.

EB-2 and EB-3 China:

In contrast to India, EB-2 China remains ahead of EB-3 China. In April 2019, EB-2 China advances three months to a Final Action Date of April 1, 2016, and EB-3 China advances three weeks to a Final Action Date of August 1, 2015. Like India, these trends are expected to continue for the foreseeable future.