“Most Recent Visa Bulletin Estimation from Charlie Oppenheim” Check-in with DOS’s Charlie Oppenheim: July 16, 2018

Update on Consular Processing of Employment-Based Immigrant Visas and Impact of USCIS’s Interview Policy

As noted in prior columns, the NVC has seen an increase in employment-based immigrant visa cases for consular processing following USCIS’s 2017 decision to interview all employment-based adjustment of status applicants. Through June, consular use of employment-based numbers increased by more than 4,000, compared to the same period in FY 2017. Consular processing has increased 40 percent for EB-1 cases with a similar increase for EB-3.

In terms of the impact of the USCIS interview policy on demand for immigrant visa numbers, Charlie reports that as of mid-April, USCIS District Offices seem to have “hit their stride” in requesting immigrant visa numbers, and that they are now on par with the rate at which numbers were requested when I-485s were processed primarily at the service centers. In fact, overall USCIS employment-based number usage through early July is higher than it has historically been at this point in the year, which led to the establishment of the EB-1 Worldwide final action date for August and might require other “limiting” action in September. With the continuing successful transition of employment-based adjustment cases from the service centers to the district offices and the ongoing exchange of data, volatility in final action date movements should be minimized by 2019.

Employment-Based Preference Categories

Summer of 2007 Déjà Vu? As noted in the August Visa Bulletin, “it has been necessary to impose an E1 Final Action Date for the month of August, with this date being imposed immediately.” This statement has prompted questions by AILA members as to whether USCIS will continue to accept EB-1 Worldwide adjustment of status applications for the duration of July. Members who lived through the summer of 2007 can take comfort that an abrupt end to filings is not expected. In using the term “immediately,” Charlie did not mean to imply that USCIS would stop accepting all EB-1 Worldwide applications as of the date of publication of the Bulletin. The term “immediately” simply refers to the future authorization of EB-1 numbers for cases being interviewed in July. Absent a contrary announcement from USCIS, Charlie fully expects USCIS will continue to interview scheduled applicants and accept all EB-1 Worldwide I-485s for filing. However, upon conclusion of the immigrant visa interview, if the applicant’s priority date is on/after May 1, 2016, the request for an immigrant visa will be put in Charlie’s pending demand file until the final action date again becomes current and the adjustment of status can be granted. Further retrogression of the EB-1 Worldwide final action date cannot be ruled out in September, but there will be a recovery of the date in October.

The final action date for EB-1 Worldwide China and EB-1 India will hold at January 1, 2012 in August, and again for September, with the anticipated recovery of visa availability in October. Charlie will continue to watch trends over the summer and is working closely with USCIS to determine applicant demand which will be eligible for processing in October.

China. EB-2 China advances two months to March 1, 2015 and EB-3 China advances 1.5 years to July 1, 2014 in August. EB-3 China, which had recently retrogressed due to significant downgrade demand, has subsided somewhat, allowing for this forward movement. At this point there has not been a dramatic increase in EB-2 China demand based on movement of that date, which is allowing some of these numbers to fall to EB-3. Charlie cautions against expectations of regular advancement of EB-3 China during FY-2019, as such movements are dependent on the development of future demand patterns.

India. EB-2 India will hold at March 15, 2009 in August and is anticipated to remain there through this fiscal year. EB-2 Worldwide demand has picked up sufficiently enough to use the remaining EB-2 numbers which had allowed the India EB-2 date to advance. Although Charlie will review the numbers again later this month, unless there is an unlikely dramatic dip in worldwide demand that would justify advancing EB-2 India further, it will continue to hold.

In our last column we reported that EB-2 Worldwide demand is increasing and might require Charlie to impose a final action date before the end of the fiscal year. EB-2 Worldwide will remain current in August. As noted last month, if a final action date is imposed in September, the category will return to current in October.

EB-5. EB-5 China Non-Regional Center and Regional Center will continue to hold at August 1, 2014 in August and is expected to advance one week either in September or in October.

EB-5 Vietnam Non-Regional Center and Regional Center similarly holds at August 1, 2014. Charlie expects this category to advance to a 2016 date in October but cautions that the category it is likely to retrogress again once it hits its annual limit by spring.